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Fujian
福建
Digging for victory
探索成功之路
Nov 23rd 2006 | FUZHOU AND XIAMEN
From The Economist print edition、

A Chinese province woos Taiwan for the sake of its own economy
“借”台湾，福建经济腾飞



THE Chinese province of Fujian has been feeling a bit left out. While the Pearl River delta to the south and the Yangtze delta to the north have boomed, subtropical Fujian has prospered too, but not quite so impressively. Every time the central government picks a new area for development, Fujian is not in it. But in recent months, with some clever rebranding, the province has been on a roll. Salvation, it hopes, lies in Taiwan, just across a 125-160 kilometre-wide (78-100 mile) strait.
福建作为中国的省份已经感到被忽视了。当南方珠江三角洲和北方长江三角洲经济腾飞时，地处亚热带的福建也在发展，不过不是那么显著。每次中央政府选择发展新地区时，福建总不在考虑内。但是最近几个月，伴随着明智的定位，这个省已经进入领导人视线 。隔着125-160公里海峡的台湾将使他重生

Fujian's new brand is visible on billboards and red banners adorning the streets of its two biggest cities, Fuzhou, the capital, and Xiamen, a southern port that was one of China's original (and now redundant) “special economic zones”. Fujian is no longer plain Fujian. It is the “Economic Zone on the West Coast of the Strait”. The title may not trip off the tongue, but it is laden with political import and, Fujian hopes, comes with a licence to spend a lot more government money.
两个最大的城市，省会福州和中国南部最早的经济特区之一厦门，在街道的宣传栏和迎风摇摆的红色标语中,福建新定位随处可见。福建不再是普通的福建了。它是“海峡西岸的经济区”。这个名头虽然不是那么朗朗上口，但却承载了重要的政治意义，而且能让福建顺理成章地获得政府更多的投资。

Three years ago, Lu Zhangong, Fujian's then governor (now Communist Party chief as well), first unveiled the West Coast brand to the provincial legislature. So as not to make it sound too much like a selfish cry for attention for Fujian, parts of neighbouring provinces were also included. The central government approved. The West Coast idea implies the existence of a zone on the east side of the strait, ie, Taiwan. By posing as part of an economic region embracing Taiwan, Fujian played up to China's strategy of using economic integration to entice Taiwan into unification with the mainland.
三年前，卢展工，福建省长（现在的省委书记）第一次将西海岸定位引进省立法机构。为了避免太突出福建，并没有大肆宣传并且还包括了兄弟省份。中央政府同意了。西海岸策略暗示着海峡东边台湾区域的存在。中国的战略是运用经济整合使台湾不能和大陆分开，福建则扮演环抱台湾经济区这一角色



A visit by President Hu Jintao to Fujian in January sealed the deal. In March development of the West Coast zone was stated as a national goal in China's new five-year plan. Such an endorsement was vital for Fujian. The central government is trying to put the brakes on investment in fixed assets as a way of preventing the economy from overheating. But Fujian can use its new clout to gain speedier approvals in Beijing for big projects. Had the new plan omitted the West Coast zone, Fujian would have found itself feeling even more left out, because it also endorsed the development of a rival region centred around the Bohai Gulf in northern China. Fujian officials worry that, despite the ancestral and linguistic ties many have with Fujian, Taiwanese investors in high-tech industries prefer the north and areas around Shanghai, such as Jiangsu, where skilled labour is more abundant.
胡锦涛主席2月份去福建批准了这一协议。发展海峡西岸在三月份被写进国家新的十一五计划。这一文件对福建来说非常重要。中央政府为了防止经济过热正在限制固定资产的投资。但是福建可以运用新“尚方宝剑”使大项目得到北京更快的批准。伴随着将中国北方渤海湾发展成一个更具竞争力的区域文件的出台，福建认为一旦十一五规划忽视了西海岸区域，自己会被更边缘化。尽管福建和台湾有祖先和语言上联系，但是福建官员担心在高技术产业，台湾人投资会转向技术工人更充裕的北方，上海还有江苏

In line with the central government's belt-tightening policy, Fujian's plan modestly calls for growth of “more than 9%” annually, compared with an average of 10.7% in the previous five years (Guangdong and Jiangsu recorded annual growth of around 13% from 2001 to 2005). But to make itself a new magnet for Taiwanese investment, Fujian has some big plans afoot. The length of Fujian's railway lines is to increase by more than 50% to 2,500km. Expressways will double to 2,450km. Cargo-handling capacity will expand by nearly 80% and passenger capacity at its five main airports by nearly 100%.
为配合着中央政府限制投资政策，和过去五年来平均年增长率10.7%相比，福建谨慎的提出年增长率仅超过9%。（2001到2005年广州和江苏显示年增长率13%）但是为了更吸引台湾人投资，福建正在进行了一些大计划。福建省铁路增长将超过50%达到2,500公里。高速公路将翻倍达到2,450公里。5个主要机场的货物屯吐能力将扩张80%，载客能力将增长100%

The province's ambitions depend, of course, on Taiwan. Fujian has been busily discussing its plans with members of opposition parties there, but not with the island's leadership, which is deeply suspicious of economic ties with the mainland. Without Taiwan's consent, Fujian's airport expansion projects might well be wasted. There are no scheduled direct flights between the island and China. Only a handful of chartered flights carry passengers across the strait each year. The first chartered cargo flight from Taiwan since 1949 landed in Shanghai only in July. Political hang-ups on both sides have blocked regular air links. Shipping links are little better.
当然，这个省的雄图伟业能否实现，还得看台湾。福建正积极和台湾反对党而不是政府商讨这一计划，因为政府对经济和大陆紧密相连表示深深怀疑。如果台湾不同意，福建机场的扩建可能是浪费。台湾和大陆还没有实现飞机直航，每年仅有包租客机搭载有限的游客往飞台海峡。从1949年开始，从台湾到上海的特许空运只能在7月。两岸政治的悬而未解阻碍了正常的空运，海运只是稍好一点

But Fujian officials have their eye on Taiwan's presidential election in 2008, when the island's president, Chen Shui-bian, is constitutionally required to step down (assuming corruption scandals do not bring him down earlier). Ma Ying-jeou, Taipei's mayor and the leader of Taiwan's biggest opposition party, the Kuomintang, has faced corruption allegations himself. But China hopes that he—or someone like him—will be the next president. Mr Ma has said Taiwan and China should set up a “common market”.
尽管现在的总统陈水扁按理说应自动下台（近期的腐败丑闻还没有使他提早下台），但是福建的领导将它们眼光放在台湾2008年总统选举。台北市市长和台湾最大的在野党国民党主席马英九自身也面临着腐败。但是中国希望他或像他一样的人，成为下一任总统。马曾经说过台湾和中国应建立共同市场。

Mr Chen's administration has heaped scorn on Fujian's ambitions. It has dismissed the West Coast strategy as a ploy to reduce Taiwan to the status of a partner of a Chinese province rather than a nation in its own right. But Fujian's officials are optimistic. At Xiamen's high-tech industrial development zone, Xiong Fujing says he expects 60% of investment in the zone over the next five years to come from Taiwan, compared with only two Taiwanese projects there up until last year. Mr Xiong says that, thanks to Fujian's drive, several big Taiwanese companies have recently agreed to invest in the zone. Late last year a Taiwanese company, Chunghwa Picture Tubes, became the biggest shareholder in one of China's leading flat-screen television-makers, Xoceco, based in Xiamen.
陈的政府对福建的雄心冷嘲热讽。他们排斥西海岸计划，因为这一策略将使台湾从一个拥有国家主权沦落为中国一个省合作的地位。但是福建的领导很乐观。在厦门高科技工业发展区，熊福京表示希望在未来五年有60%投资来自台湾，而到去年为止只有两个台湾项目。熊表示感谢福建的努力，更多的台湾大公司将会投资这一地区。去年，台湾公司Chunghwa显像管在厦门落脚，在主导中国平板电视市场中，他已拥有最大的份额。

There are yet more grandiose plans in the air. At a symposium on the West Coast project, a Xiamen scholar proposed this week that Xiamen unite with the Taiwanese-held island of Kinmen, just a few kilometres away, to form a “special city”. This, he was quoted as saying by the Chinese press, could become a huge trading hub with an airport like Hong Kong's. A nice idea, if only Taiwan would say yes.
流传着更多的宏伟计划。在这周西海岸论坛上，厦门学者指出厦门应和只有几公里远台湾管辖的金门组成一个特殊城市。人民日报引用他的观点说，伴随着附近的机场这将成为一个像香港那样巨大的贸易中心。不过只有台湾说行，这才真是一个好构想。


**********************************************************


Digging for victory 掘地三尺为成功

A Chinese province woos Taiwan for the sake of its own economy
为发展经济极力拉拢台湾

THE Chinese province of Fujian has been feeling a bit left out. While the Pearl River delta to the south and the Yangtze delta to the north have boomed, subtropical Fujian has prospered too, but not quite so impressively. Every time the central government picks a new area for development, Fujian is not in it. But in recent months, with some clever rebranding, the province has been on a roll. Salvation, it hopes, lies in Taiwan, just across a 125-160 kilometre-wide (78-100 mile) strait.

一直以来，福建省觉得有点跟不形势。南方的珠江三角洲和北方的长江三三角洲经济腾飞，处于亚热带的福建的发展却有点不尽如人意。每次中央选择发展一个新的地区，福建都没赶上。但是近几个月，靠着一个聪明的重新定位，这个省已经在中央的名单里了。它希望，仅仅隔着一条宽125-160公里海峡的台湾，能成为它的救命稻草。

Fujian's new brand is visible on billboards and red banners adorning the streets of its two biggest cities, Fuzhou, the capital, and Xiamen, a southern port that was one of China's original (and now redundant) “special economic zones”. Fujian is no longer plain Fujian. It is the “Economic Zone on the West Coast of the Strait”. The title may not trip off the tongue①, but it is laden with political import and, Fujian hopes, comes with a licence to spend a lot more government money.

在两个主要城市福州----福建省省会，厦门----中国最早的经济特中国区之一(现在好像显得有些多余)，街道上的广告牌和红色横幅打出这个新的招牌。福建不再是普通的福建，它是“海峡西岸经济区”。这个名头虽然不是那么朗朗上口，但却承载了重要的政治意义，而且能让福建顺理成章地获得政府更多的投资。

Three years ago, Lu Zhangong, Fujian's then governor (now Communist Party chief as well), first unveiled the West Coast brand to the provincial legislature. So as not to make it sound too much like a selfish cry for attention for Fujian, parts of neighbouring provinces were also included. The central government approved. The West Coast idea implies the existence of a zone on the east side of the strait, ie, Taiwan. By posing as part of an economic region embracing Taiwan, Fujian played up to China's strategy of using economic integration to entice Taiwan into unification with the mainland.

三年前，福建后来的省长(现在也是省委书记)卢展工首先在省立法机关公开了这张“西岸牌”。为了避免看起来像是只有福建在要奶喝，几个邻近的省份也包含了进去。中央政府批准了。“西岸牌”时时刻刻提醒着东边那个地区----台湾的存在。以包括台湾的经济区域的一员的姿态，福建巧妙地迎合了中国用经济整体性吸引台湾与大陆统一的策略。


A visit by President Hu Jintao to Fujian in January sealed the deal. In March development of the West Coast zone was stated as a national goal in China's new five-year plan. Such an endorsement was vital for Fujian. The central government is trying to put the brakes on investment in fixed assets as a way of preventing the economy from overheating. But Fujian can use its new clout to gain speedier approvals in Beijing for big projects. Had the new plan omitted the West Coast zone, Fujian would have found itself feeling even more left out, because it also endorsed the development of a rival region centred around the Bohai Gulf in northern China. Fujian officials worry that, despite the ancestral and linguistic ties many have with Fujian, Taiwanese investors in high-tech industries prefer the north and areas around Shanghai, such as Jiangsu, where skilled labour is more abundant.

今年一月，国家主席胡锦涛对福建的视察敲定了这件事。三月，西岸经济区的发展列入了国家新五年计划的目标。这样的许可对于福建来说至关重要。中央政府正打算减少固定资产投资，以抑制过热的经济，而福建通过它新的影响力，可以在北京更快地拿到大项目的通行证。如果新的五年计划没有将西岸经济区列进去，福建恐怕会觉得自己更赶不上趟儿了----因为计划同时也包括了位于中国北方的竞争区域渤海湾地区。福建政府很担心即使自己与台湾有着历史上的渊源和语言方面的便利，台湾的投资者还是更愿意在靠近上海的地区，如江苏等熟练技术工人充裕的地方投资兴建高新技术产业。

In line with the central government's belt-tightening policy②, Fujian's plan modestly calls for growth of “more than 9%” annually, compared with an average of 10.7% in the previous five years (Guangdong and Jiangsu recorded annual growth of around 13% from 2001 to 2005). But to make itself a new magnet for Taiwanese investment, Fujian has some big plans afoot. The length of Fujian's railway lines is to increase by more than 50% to 2,500km. Expressways will double to 2,450km. Cargo-handling capacity
will expand by nearly 80% and passenger capacity at its five main airports by nearly 100%.

为了响应中央政府稳步发展的政策，福建计划让经济年增长率保持在“9%以上”，而前五年中国的经济每年平均增长10.7%(广东和江苏从2001年到2005年的年平均经济增长率达13%)。不过，为了让自己成为吸引台湾资金的一块新的磁石，它已经开始有大的动作了。福建的铁路总长度将增加50%以上，达到2500公里；公路长度翻一倍，达到2450公里；5个主要机场的货物吞吐量将扩大近80%，载客能力增加近一倍。

The province's ambitions depend, of course, on Taiwan. Fujian has been busily discussing its plans with members of opposition parties there, but not with the island's leadership, which is deeply suspicious of economic ties with the mainland. Without Taiwan's consent, Fujian's airport expansion projects might well be wasted. There are no scheduled direct flights between the island and China. Only a handful of chartered flights③ carry passengers across the strait each year. The first chartered cargo flight from
Taiwan since 1949 landed in Shanghai only in July. Political hang-ups on both sides have blocked regular air links. Shipping links are little better.

当然，这个省的雄图伟业能否实现，还得看台湾。福建正在积极与台湾的反对党成员进行磋商，因为台湾执政党对与大陆的经济联系抱有很深的怀疑态度。如果台湾有关方面不点头，福建的机场扩建工程可能会白白浪费。中国与台湾之间没有直达航班，每年仅有一些包租客机搭载乘客往返于海峡两岸。自1949起，从台湾飞来的包租货机只有7月允许在上海着陆。两岸悬而未决的政治问题，成为正常空运联系的绊脚石。海运方面，情况稍好一些。

But Fujian officials have their eye on Taiwan's presidential election in 2008, when the island's president, Chen Shui-bian, is constitutionally required to step down (assuming corruption scandals do not bring him down earlier). Ma Ying-jeou, Taipei's mayor and the leader of Taiwan's biggest opposition party, the Kuomintang, has faced corruption allegations himself. But China hopes that he—or someone like him—will be the next president. Mr Ma has said Taiwan and China should set up a “common market”.

福建政府把宝押在2008年台湾下届总统选举上。依照台湾宪法，民进党主席陈水扁任期将在那时结束(假如在那之前腐败丑闻没能把他拉下台的话)。台湾最大的反对党国民党的主席、台北市长马英九也面临着腐败指控，但中国希望他----或者像他那样的人----能够成为下任总统，因为他曾经说过，台湾和大陆应该建立一个“共同市场”。

Mr Chen's administration has heaped scorn on Fujian's ambitions. It has dismissed the West Coast strategy as a ploy to reduce Taiwan to the status of a partner of a Chinese province rather than a nation in its own right. But Fujian's officials are optimistic. At Xiamen's high-tech industrial development zone, Xiong Fujing says he expects 60% of investment in the zone over the next five years to come from Taiwan, compared with only two Taiwanese projects there up until last year. Mr Xiong says that, thanks
to Fujian's drive, several big Taiwanese companies have recently agreed to invest in the zone. Late last year a Taiwanese company, Chunghwa Picture Tubes, became the biggest shareholder in one of China's leading flat-screen television-makers, Xoceco, based in Xiamen.

陈水扁政府对福建的企图大加嘲讽。他们认为“西岸花招”并没有把台湾作为一个独立的国家来对待，而把它贬为一个中国省份的合作伙伴。但是福建的政府还是很乐观的。厦门高新技术产业开发区管委会办公室副主任熊福京预计接下来的五年中，将会有60%的投资来自台湾，而到去年为止，这个开发区只有两个台湾投资项目。熊福京说，由于福建新的发展势头，已经有几家台湾大公司决定在开发区投资。去年，台湾中华映管公司成为中国纯屏彩电制造业引领者----厦门厦华公司的最大股东。

There are yet more grandiose plans in the air. At a symposium on the West Coast project, a Xiamen scholar proposed this week that Xiamen unite with the Taiwanese-held island of Kinmen, just a few kilometres away, to form a “special city”. This, he was quoted as saying by the Chinese press, could become a huge trading hub with an airport like Hong Kong's. A nice idea, if only Taiwan would say yes.

坊间甚至还有更夸大的计划。在这周的西岸项目研讨会上，一个厦门学者提出，应把厦门和几公里外属于台湾的金门共同打造成一个“特别城市”。按中国国内媒体所引用的他的话，这个城市将成为一个巨大的贸易中心，它的机场和香港机场规模相当。不错的想法，但是台湾会答应吗？

注： ① trip off the tongue 朗朗上口
②belt-tightening policy 勒紧裤腰带的政策，此处理解为不让经济过快增长
③ chartered flights 包租航班

[2006.7.01]Infectious disease in China:Sanitising the record

[2006.7.01]Asia
Infectious disease in China:Sanitising the record
传染病在中国： 洗净记录
Jun 29th 2006 | JIUXIAN
From The Economist print edition
China is not helping as it should
中国仍然不够合作



  
   IN CHINA'S battle against infectious diseases of global concern,from bird flu to foot-and-mouth, its Agriculture Ministry clearly has a crucial role to play. But getting the ministry's powerful and secretive bureaucracy to co-operate in the fight against disease is quite a struggle.
   从禽流感到口蹄疫，在中国与有国际性影响的传染病的斗争中，农业部扮演着举足轻重的角色。但要让这个掌握实权而又行事隐秘的官僚机构通力合作对抗疾病却又颇费周折。
  
    For instance, May last year was the first time ever that the ministry officially reported outbreaks of foot-and-mouth, a disease that affects pigs, as well as cattle and sheep. As a member of the international body that monitors the disease, the World Organisation for Animal Health, China is supposed to report any cases of foot-and-mouth as they occur. But even though the disease had often been rampant in China (and has probably never been fully eliminated), reports were treated as state secrets. The data in our table concerning outbreaks mor than 14 years ago come from internal documents, and are probably still officially secret. More recent figures were not available until the government started reporting last May.
  比如去年5月，当局史无前例地公开发布了口蹄疫爆发的消息，这个疾病能感染猪、牛和羊。作为国际监控此类疾病的组织——世界动物卫生组织的一员，中国理应第一时间发布关于口蹄疫的任何疫情。然而尽管这种疫情在中国一度猖獗（且可能从未被彻底消除），疫情报告却一直被视为国家机密。目前在我们案头上的关于14年前疫情暴发的文件是内部资料，可能仍然是政府机密。晚近的数据无从查证直到去年5月政府开始官方发布。
  
  The limits of the ministry's flirtation with openness last year became quickly evident when foot-andmouth broke out near the capital (it had done so before, but the ministry kept quiet about it). For more than two weeks after sealing off the township of Jiuxian, about 50km (30 miles) north of central Beijing, and slaughtering hundreds of its cattle, the authorities said nothing. Only in late May, a few days after reports began to surface in the Hong Kong media, did they finally confirm suspicions.
   当局把玩透明度的限度在去年首都周边地区爆发口蹄疫时展现得淋漓尽致（已有先例，但当局一贯对此三缄其 ）。在封锁了距北京中心约50公里的酒仙城镇超过两周，并宰杀上百牲畜之后，当局仍然守口如瓶。只有到了5月底，在疫情报告浮现于香港媒体几天之后， 当局才出面澄清猜疑。
  
  This secrecy also permeates the ministry's response to bird flu, a disease that scientists fear could mutate and kill large numbers of people. Unfortunately domestic fowl, which have borne the brunt so far of the H5N1 virus's spread, come under the ministry's aegis. Although the ministry has built up what Western experts believe to be a wealth of information on the virus's development, it has been reluctant to share it. World Health Organisation officials were given five live virus samples in 2004, but have been given none since.
   这种隐秘作风在当局处理禽流感时也随处可见，这种疾病被科学家们认为可能变异而危害广大人民的生命。遗憾的是因H5N1病毒蔓延而首当其冲的家禽一直在当局的庇护之下。尽管当局已经掌握了在西方科学家眼里十分可贵且丰富的关于病毒传播的信息，但却不愿意共享出来。 世界卫生组织官员曾在2004年收到5份活病毒样本，但自从那以后就全无下文。
  
  The Ministry of Agriculture first reported an H5N1 outbreak among poultry in January 2004. But in a letter published last week by the New England Journal of Medicine, a group of Chinese scientists said a man subsequently discovered to have been infected with H5N1 had died in Beijing in November 2003.
  农业部最早在2004年报导了家禽中爆发H5N1病毒传染的消息。但是据上周由《新英格兰医学杂志》刊登的一封来信显示，一群中国科学家曾说有人2003年11月在北京因感染H5N1病毒死亡。
  
  The erratic information flow is not entirely the fault of top officials. Peasants and rural governments are reluctant to come clean about anything that might disrupt local economies. In Jiuxian, peasants are still seething about what they say is inadequate compensation for their slaughtered cows. Rumour has it there that smaller outbreaks occurred elsewhere in Beijing at the same time but were covered up, those farmers getting better compensation. Dozens of people who tried to protest in the city centre last year were hauled away by the police and sent home.
   信息传播的偏差并不完全是上级官员的过错。农民和农村政府不愿将任何有碍地方经济发展的实情和盘托出。在酒仙，农民们仍就他们所获得的因宰杀牲畜而造成的经济损失的补偿不当而议论纷纷。传闻说在北京其他地区曾同时爆发小规模的疫情被当局掩盖，而那些农民却获得了更多的补偿。去年许多农民尝试在市中心抗议，但被警察扭送回家。

[2006.10.21][Leaders]America drops, Asia shops

The world economy
世界经济

America drops, Asia shops
美国衰退，亚洲消费

Thanks to the vigour of Asia's consumers, it is a good time for the American economy to slow
多亏亚洲消费者的活力，美国经济可以休息一下了







IT IS a commonplace that American consumers have kept the world economy spinning. Asians are frugal, Europeans are gloomy, so if Americans do not keep spending as fast as they have been lately, the world economy is in trouble.
世界经济运转依赖于美国消费者的表现，这似乎已是老生常谈了。亚洲人太节俭，欧洲人又过于忧郁，所以要是哪天美国人钱花的少了，世界经济就遇到大麻烦了。

That view will be tested over the next couple of years as Americans adjust to the end of their housing bonanza. By virtually every measure America’s housing market is in trouble. Home sales and residential construction are tumbling, the overhang of unsold homes has soared and, according to some statistics, house prices have started to slide. And despite the odd bit of good news, such as this week's figures showing that housing starts rose unexpectedly in September and builders' gloom had lifted slightly, the painful truth is that America's housing adjustment probably has a lot further to go.
今后几年中，上述观点将面临考验。因为美国的房产牛市已经走到尽头，几乎所有证据都表明，美国的房地产业正陷入泥潭。房产销量暴跌，住宅建设量萎缩，挂牌出售的住房数量走高，据某些统计称，房价也开始下滑了。上周的统计数字显示，九月份住房市场出乎意料的回升，一筹莫展的建筑商们可以稍稍喘口气，但是偶然出现的零星好消息却无法掩盖这样痛苦的事实：美国房地产市场的调整，决非一朝一夕能够完成的。

The effect of that adjustment on Americans' spending has yet to be felt. So far, the housing bust has hit builders most. America's GDP growth slowed to a crawl over the summer as builders cut back. Consumers have barely noticed, mainly because unemployment remains low and tumbling fuel prices have boosted their bank balances and buoyed their spirits. Petrol prices have fallen by almost 30% over the past two months. The strength of consumer spending has led many economists to argue that America is headed for a soft landing. Perhaps, but as the housing bust deepens, even the most spendthrift Americans will keep a tighter grip on their wallets. America may avoid recession, but it won't avoid a slow-down. Will it drag the world economy with it?
房产市场走低对于美国人消费的影响尚未显现。到目前为止，受房产行业不景气冲击最大的，还是房屋建筑商。随着建筑商数量的减少，夏天里美国的GDP增长也慢的像蜗牛爬。但由于失业率保持在较低水平，消费者并没有受到经济放缓过多的影响。事实上美国消费者情绪还很高涨，因为油价的暴跌增加了他们的银行存款。在过去两个月中，油价已下跌了几乎30％。基于美国消费的坚挺，许多经济学家指出，美国经济正开始软着陆。或许有这个可能，但是随着房产市场的进一步不景气，即便是最挥霍无度的美国人，都要学着勒紧裤腰带过日子。美国或许能够避免经济倒退，但肯定无法逃过发展放缓。世界经济还会被美国拉下水么？

The reason it will not is that the common view of the American consumer as the engine of the world economy is flawed. IMF figures show that Asia, not America, has been the main driver of global demand, powering the world economy through its fastest five-year period of growth since the early 1970s. That is not just because Asians are producing so much more, but also because they're buying so much more. Asian consumers are on a spending spree, splashing out on anything from mobile phones to designer clothes.
这次不会了。世界经济高度依赖美国消费者的说法，已经不合时宜了。国际货币基金组织的统计数据显示，世界经济正经历自上世纪70年代初以来发展速度最快的五年，而在这段时间里推动全球需求最主要的动力并非来自美国，而是亚洲。因为亚洲不但产出可观，而且消费也十分惊人。亚洲的消费者正在疯狂消费，从手机到时装，所有商品都在他们的采购清单上。

They know how to spend
他们知道该如何花钱

Asia is the world's fastest-growing consumer market. The IMF forecasts that total household spending there will rise by almost 7% in real terms this year. In comparison, the 3% growth in American consumption looks almost parsimonious. Although America's consumer spending is still larger than the whole of Asia's in current dollars, the growth in Asian spending this year will be half as big again as that in America. Asia's consumer market already exceeds America's if converted at purchasing-power parity (which makes sense, because housing and domestic services are much cheaper in poorer countries, leaving more of a given sum to spend on consumer durables and the like). No wonder Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, is eager to expand in China. This week it agreed to buy the country's second-largest hypermarket chain. International retailers are battling to get a stake in China as rising living standards and rapid urbanisation create masses of new consumers. On today's trends, the consumer market there, measured in PPP, will overtake America's by 2020.
亚洲是世界成长最快的消费市场。据国际货币基金组织预测，今年亚洲家庭开支的实际增长将接近7％。相比之下，美国消费者就太小气了，他们开支增长只有区区3％。尽管用美元计算，美国消费者开支的总量仍大于亚洲，但本年度亚洲消费的增长再次超出美国的一半还多。如果按照购买力平价原则计算的话（这种算法比绝对货币的算法更合理，因为在相对穷的国家，住房和国内服务都比较便宜，这为国民购买耐用品之类的商品留下了购买力空间），亚洲的消费市场已经超过美国了。这样看来，世界最大的零售商沃尔玛在中国扩张的举措也就不足为奇了。本周零售巨人刚刚与好又多达成协议，准备收购这家中国第二大的连锁超市。随着中国人民生活水平的提高，加之国内城市化进程的推动，中国的城市消费者数量激增。国际零售巨头们之所以在中国剑拔弩张，企图分到大块蛋糕，觊觎的也正是这些新兴的购买力量。以今天的趋势来看，按照购买力评价原则计算，到2020年，中国的消费市场将赶上美国。

Economists, who tend to be less excitable than retailers, point out that Asian consumption levels are still fairly low. In Asia, household consumption accounts for only around 55% of GDP on average, compared with 71% in America. But it is the pace of the increase in consumer spending as much as its share of GDP that determines overall growth. And the lower consumption's current share of GDP, the more scope there is for it to grow.
比零售商更加冷静的经济学家们指出，亚洲的消费仍然处在较低水平。在亚洲，家庭消费平均只占GDP的55％，而美国的这一数字达到71％。不过，这一比例与消费总额一样，也在快速增长。从另一方面讲，现在消费者支出占GDP的比例越低，消费市场未来成长的空间也就越大。

Still, however bouncy Asian consumers are feeling, slowing growth means that America will buy fewer goods from the rest of the world. So the big question is how much the rest of the world depends on exporting to America. And the answer is: less than is generally thought. Smaller Asian economies, notably Taiwan, are heavily export-dependent. But the bulk of growth in China, India and Japan in recent years has been driven by domestic demand (see article).
不过还有一个问题，异军突起的亚洲消费者也已经感受到了，那就是美国经济放缓会导致美国从其他国家进口的减少。所以问题在于，世界其他国家的经济在多大程度上依赖对美国的出口？答案是：比普遍认为的依赖程度要低。亚洲也有一些规模较小的经济体，它们对出口的依赖非常大，台湾就是个典型的例子。但是中国、印度和日本近年来的发展，源动力则主要来自内需。

It is true that China runs a large current-account surplus with America and rising net exports have contributed almost two percentage points of China's growth over the past year, but even without that boost, China's GDP growth would still have been an impressive 8.5%. Moreover, America is not the only importer. Indeed, its share of world imports has fallen from 21% to 16% over the past five years—further proof that demand is strong elsewhere. If America imports less, Asia's GDP growth will slow, but by less than doomsters predict.
中国对美国始终保持着巨大的贸易顺差，去年，净出口的增长为中国GDP发展贡献了两个百分点。但是即使排除顺差增长的因素，中国的GDP增长仍然有令人瞩目的8.5％。更何况美国不是世界上唯一进口别国商品的国家。过去五年里，美国占世界总进口量的份额从21％降至16％，这进一步证明了世界其他地区需求的旺盛。

Buoyant Asian demand should help keep Europe afloat, too, for European exporters are a lot more dependent on Asia, and a lot less dependent on America, than they used to be. Exports to Asia last year were euro 244 billion, euro 44 billion higher than in 2001. Those to America were, at euro185 billion (euro230 billion), only a little more than they were four years ago.
亚洲旺盛的需求对支持欧洲经济也将做出很大贡献。欧洲的出口已远不像过去那样依赖美国了，但对亚洲的依赖却与日俱增。去年欧洲对亚洲的出口额达到24400亿欧元，与2001年相比增长了4400亿欧元。而对美国的出口只有18500亿欧元，仅比四年前略多。

Europe cheers up
欧洲已重整旗鼓

European demand should also do its bit for the world economy. Europe's recovery is not, as is widely held, purely export-driven. Most of the euro area's current growth comes from domestic demand, as spending by firms and households has perked up. Third-quarter GDP figures are likely to show the euro-area economies outpacing America's for a second consecutive quarter. The euro zone has a reasonable amount of spare capacity, which could allow it to grow above trend for a few years. And European consumers have not been as profligate in recent years as American ones, so they have the scope to reduce their saving and spend more. As a result, the euro area is likely to make a bigger contribution to global growth over the next few years than it has of late.
欧洲的消费需求也应当为世界经济做出一份贡献。欧洲经济的复苏并不像普遍认为的那样，纯粹依赖出口。现在欧洲经济大部分的增长来自内需，公司和家庭支出的回暖就是最好的证明。第三季度GDP数字显示，欧洲经济的发展速度可能连续第二个季度超过美国。欧洲经济还有一些潜力可挖，这将为其今后几年相对快速的发展提供动力。而且近年来，欧洲消费者不像美国人那样乱花钱，于是他们的储蓄也为未来的消费提供了可能。这样一来，今后几年内欧洲对世界经济的增长，很可能做出比以往更多的贡献。

Asia's growth has changed the global economy in a lot of ways, mostly for the better. One of them concerns the rest of the world's vulnerability to the vagaries of the American economy. In the past, American recessions meant global recessions. But this time round, even if America drops sharply, the world won't stop.
亚洲的崛起在许多意义上改变着世界经济，其中大部分的改变是积极的。在亚洲的帮助下，世界经济对美国的依赖程度迅速降低。要是换了过去，美国经济的衰退就意味着世界经济的不景气。但是到了今天，哪怕美国经济一落千丈，世界经济也不决会停步。